Any "third party" candidacy must be seen nearly exclusively in the role of spoiler. Yes, this is a weird year, with Trumpers and Berners showing great enthusiasm among polities that mostly seem unwilling to vote. "Likely voter" models are out the window, or at least deeply in question. Something wild could happen. But the last 100+ years (only 25 or so presidential elections, really, so the sample size is small) says it won't. The most recent President of the US who wasn't either a Republican or a Democrat was ... Millard Fil[l]more (1850-1853), our 13th President who was a Whig.
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Gory Details
Evan Robinson (Group News Blog) on the labyrinthine ways of the third party campaign, for anyone interested in that obstacle course dance.
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2 comments:
My instinct is that Trump won't run a s a 3rd party/independent because he won't play if he doesn't think he'll win. But then again, he is driven by spite, so who knows? If he gets aced out of the nomination, his fury could drive him into the role of spoiler.
I'm ambivalent; but mostly I want him to Go Away.
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